The Holiday You Cancelled for a Loss You Never Took
How unrealised drops in your portfolio still rewrite your calendar and your lifestyle.
He cancelled the Tokyo trip in September.
The flights had been booked since June. A week in autumn with the family. The budget was ready. His salary had not changed.
But his portfolio was down 18 percent.
I hear versions of this story often. The details change. Sometimes it is a renovation postponed. Sometimes it is a car upgrade delayed. Sometimes it is a family dinner at a nice restaurant quietly downgraded to hawker.
The pattern is the same. A number drops on a screen. A plan disappears from the calendar.
What strikes me is how rarely people connect the two. They do not say “I cancelled because my portfolio fell.” They say “It just felt like we should be more careful.” They say “The timing did not feel right.” They say “Maybe next year.”
The feeling is real. The logic is not.
Why the hesitation runs deeper now
The usual explanation is simple. Assets fall, you feel poorer, you spend less.
But that is not how it feels in 2025. When people tell me they are cutting back on expenses, the portfolio is only part of the story. Underneath is something heavier. There is a sense that the job could disappear too.
Retrenchments have been in the news. Companies restructuring. AI replacing roles. The economy is not collapsing, but it does not feel secure either.
A portfolio drop in a confident economy is just a number. A portfolio drop when you are already anxious about your job becomes a warning sign. The paper loss confirms the fear you were already carrying.
So you cancel the holiday. Not because you cannot afford it. Because it feels irresponsible to spend when everything feels fragile.
This is happening at national scale
China’s retail sales in November grew just 1.3 percent. Economists expected around 2.8 percent. Exports are at record highs. The economy is still growing. But consumers are spending much more cautiously.
Property values are falling. And when property is most of your wealth, falling prices change how you behave.
Investment in real estate development dropped 15.9 percent in the first eleven months of this year. New home prices fell year on year in most tier-one cities, including Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Resale prices also declined from a year earlier.
Estimates suggest around 70 percent of Chinese household wealth sits in property. When that number falls, people feel poorer. Even if their salary is the same. Even if they have no plans to sell.
A couple in Shanghai postpones their car upgrade. The salaries are still coming in. But the apartment is worth less, the news is full of layoffs, and the car can wait.
Singapore is not immune
As of late 2025, the value of condos and HDBs made up just over 40 percent of total Singaporean household assets. Nearly half of everything families own is locked in their homes.
HDB resale price growth slowed to 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025. The slowest pace in years. The fourth straight quarter of moderation.
PropertyGuru’s Consumer Sentiment Study found that affordability sentiment weakened between the first and second half of 2024. Stretched affordability weighs on confidence. Confidence weighs on spending.
The personal saving rate has been elevated, and remains high by international standards.
A Singapore-focused study by Phang Sock Yong and Wong Woon Wai from Singapore Management University found little evidence that house price increases produced a positive wealth effect on spending.
But declines in expected house price growth had a noticeable chilling effect.
The reaction is not balanced. Gains do not loosen spending. Losses tighten it.
What happens to a Shanghai couple or a Singapore family is not so different from that Tokyo trip. Paper shocks in their biggest assets change what they feel they can do.
The asymmetry is real
This pattern shows up in research.
Dutch household panel data found that a 1,000 euro capital gain reduced active saving by about 80 euros. A 1,000 euro capital loss increased active saving by over 200 euros. The loss effect was nearly three times larger.
Here is the counterintuitive part. Many people intuitively treat paper gains as untouchable. That instinct is often sensible. The problem is when paper losses start removing real experiences from life.
The one question worth asking
Before you cancel the trip. Before you downgrade the dinner. Before you postpone the renovation.
Pause and separate three things. Your income risk. Your job risk. Your portfolio noise.
Write them down:
What has actually changed in my income?
What is the real risk to my job in the next 12 months?
What moved in my portfolio this month that I was not expecting?
Usually, the first two are what actually matter. The third is noise.
The anxiety is not irrational. The economy does feel fragile. Jobs are disappearing. AI is rewriting industries. The fear is real.
But cancelling the holiday does not make your job safer. Skipping the dinner does not protect your income. Postponing the renovation does not reduce the risk.
You are sacrificing something real to manage a feeling. And the feeling will still be there after the sacrifice.
Ask yourself. Has anything actually changed since I planned this?
The portfolio dropped. That is real.
The time you did not spend with the people who matter? That was real too.
Paper losses fade. Missed moments do not.
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.